Last week, Lord Timpson signed the Commencement Order giving effect to the new progression model that will be established in September. The new model, which will go live on 2nd September, is one of the core measures within the Sentencing Act.

The model:

As set out in a previous Clinks blog, the model will see the majority of people serving standard determinate sentences (SDS) released at the 33% point of their sentence. The second third of the sentence will be spent under active supervision by probation, and the final third will be the ‘on licence’ stage where everyone on probation will remain on licence and be at risk of recall if in breach of licence conditions. Those considered to be higher risk will remain under active supervision in final third. For example, people subject to multi-agency public protection arrangements (MAPPA) will remain in the intensive supervision stage for the entirety of their sentence. There will be an end to active supervision of those considered to be of lower risk, although they system will be dynamic to enable people to be brought back under active supervision if circumstances change.  

As previously noted, for those serving an SDS with an automatic release point of 67 percent, their earliest possible release will be at the 50% point. 

Implemented alongside probation reforms:

The rollout of the progression model will sit alongside previously announced reforms to probation, including the implementation of the new, tiered risk system for people on probation. There will be seven risk tiers, from A to G, with A being the highest risk cohort.

Additionally, the presumption to electronically monitor the majority of people being released from prison (again, with exemptions) will also be introduced. On the whole, people will remain under electronic monitoring for the duration of the time that they would otherwise have been in custody (before the changes to release points brought about by the Sentencing Act). Those eligible for exemptions from electronic monitoring include those released with no settled accommodation or those who would only be monitored for a very short period of time.

Apart from the exemptions, every person will be evaluated as part of pre-release planning and subsequently be electronically monitored, at least to their previous calculated release date, or be subjected to extended monitoring or a specific type of monitoring (i.e. alcohol monitoring or proximity monitoring).  

Next steps:

Releases under the progression model will be implemented in tranches, with ten tranches starting from 2nd September. These tranches will take place on a monthly basis, with a greater number of releases expected in the early tranches and those on the shortest sentences, released first.

Operational guidance will be produced and shared with operational stakeholders, following the finalisation of sentence calculations.

Clinks will be continuing to work with officials on ensuring that information is disseminated across the voluntary sector in a timely manner, with a focus on enabling organisations to effectively prepare for the increased numbers of people that will be released from prison.