There has been extensive coverage of proposed changes to the Progression Model in recent weeks, leading to uncertainty across the voluntary sector as to what this will mean in terms of increased demand on services. We are therefore pleased to able to provide greater clarity regarding the changes coming into force from 1st October.

The following information summarises the package of reforms that will be implemented across the Probation Service through the ongoing implementation of the Sentencing Act and through the Our Future Probation Service (OFPS) programme.

The Progression Model:

As many will be aware, the Act introduces a new three-stage structure for eligible people serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS):

1. Custody
2. Supervision in the community
3. A final licence stage

Key elements to note are:

• Eligible people serving a Standard Determinate Sentence will generally be released after one-third of their sentence
• Those serving a Standard Determinate Sentence Plus - covering certain more serious violent and sexual offences - will generally be released after one-half of their sentence.
• Following a ministerial review, people convicted of rape and certain sexual offences against children will be excluded from the revised release arrangements and remain subject to existing statutory release rules. You can find the full list of new excluded offences, here.
• For people already in custody immediately before implementation, eligible release dates will be recalculated

Releases will be phased between October 2026 and June 2027, with the first two tranches scheduled for 1 October and 13 October 2026.

Home Detention Curfew (HDC) will cease as a routine policy and there will be no new HDC releases after 2 September 2026.

What does this mean for supervision?

Active supervision will take place during the second third of the sentence. It will end during the final third (the licence stage), but breach of licence conditions can still lead to recall. There are also a range of exemptions, meaning that certain groups will remain under active supervision during the final third of their sentence.

• People managed under Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangement (MAPPA).
• Those convicted of Child Sexual Exploitation offences
• People assessed by probation as most likely to reoffend.

Active supervision will also be retained for those that are ineligible for the Progression Model, once they are released.

Presumption toward Electronic Monitoring:

The supervision stage also introduces a presumption of Electronic Monitoring on release for eligible cases, subject to specified exemptions. Monitoring will generally remain in place until the point at which the person would previously have been released (before the Progression Model was implemented).

New restrictions:

From October 1, courts, the Parole Board and probation practitioners will be able to use new, restrictive measures:

• Prohibition from driving
• Prohibition from entering drinking establishments
• Prohibition from attending public events

It is important to note that these restrictions do not need to be directly connected to the original offence.

Probation will also be able to impose Restriction Zones that will require people to remain within a specific, designated area. Those subject to this condition will be electronically monitored.

A new Probation Requirement replacing the Rehabilitation Activity Requirement (RAR):

For new Community Orders and Suspended Sentence Orders, the Probation Requirement will replace the Rehabilitation Activity Requirement from 1 October.

Courts will no longer set a maximum number of rehabilitation activity days. Instead, probation practitioners will decide the ‘nature, timing and intensity’ of activity throughout the order.

Early Termination:

Early Termination was introduced earlier in 2026 and allows Community Orders and Suspended Sentence Orders to be concluded before sentence expiry where sentence objectives have been achieved and continued supervision is no longer considered necessary. Decisions will need to be supported by evidence of progress, informed by risk assessment and professional judgement, and subject to appropriate governance and oversight.

Changes to probation practice – supervision packages:

To support the implementation of the Sentencing Act, a new framework that will determine probation’s level of supervision will apply from 1st October 2026. This will apply to people on Community Orders, Suspended Sentence Orders and on licence.

The level of supervision ‘intensity’ will be aligned explicitly with risk, need, need and likelihood of reoffending, considered to be necessary and proportionate, and supported by evidence-based assessment tools.

The objective is to target probation’s resources towards those deemed as presenting the highest risk of serious harm and likelihood of reoffending.

There will be enhanced community management arrangements for certain groups, including those excluded from the Progression Model.

Custody-to-community transitions will change from September

Changes to Offender Management in Custody (OMiC) and pre-release arrangements will begin on 1 September 2026. The objective will be to strengthen transition planning between custody and the community, focusing on improving information sharing, reducing duplication and supporting continuity of risk management.

This will be an interim model ahead of the development of a longer-term custodial sentence management approach.

The role of, and the impact on, the voluntary sector:

These reforms are aimed predominantly at the manner in which probation provides supervision. Yet, there are a number of knock-on effects on how voluntary organisations support people in the community, specifically how and when they can engage with the people accessing their services.

The key areas for the sector to consider as they adapt to these changes are:

• Referral patterns (including earlier referrals) and how this ties in with increased partnership working with probation at a local level
• A renewed focus on information sharing – access to information is critical for voluntary organisations to be able to provide effective support
• Increased demand on services – as a result of the greater number of people being released through the Progression Model
• Navigating additional restrictions – including how to ensure access to services when people are restricted from visiting certain areas; this will, again, required increased partnership working with local probation
• Tailored support – an area in which the sector excels, the new Probation Requirement lends itself to personalised support, tailored to addressing need
• Outcomes over outputs – another area in which the sector excels, the ability for early termination of certain orders emphasises the need to focus on purposeful rehabilitative interventions
• Maintaining support – given the changes to supervision levels and timelines, there will be a need to ensure that any unmet needs are addressed
• Easing the transition from custody to the community – changes to the OMiC model, alongside the implementation of the Progression Model, will lead to increased demand on community support services

We will continue to provide updates to the sector as these reforms progress, and will be focused on facilitating continued statutory-non-statutory engagement to ensure that the sector is as prepared as possible for the upcoming changes.