On Thursday 19 March, Lord Timpson announced a range of measures relating to an expansion in electronic monitoring and procedural reforms to the delivery of probation supervision. The context within which these measures are being implemented is the ongoing implementation of the Sentencing Act and what it means for people coming out of prison, as well as ongoing work to reduce probation workloads by 25% by 2027/28. Current probation capacity is lower than the demands being placed on the service, exacerbated by a continued shortfall in the number of FTE staff.

Expansion of Electronic monitoring:

There are five elements to the EM announcement, with the expansion to be supported by £100 million in investment.

1. Presumption towards electronic monitoring – this is a reiteration of the previous commitment to implement a presumption towards electronic monitoring for the majority of people released from prison. For the majority of people serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS), the monitoring period will be the period between the 33% stage at which people will be released under the new progression model up to when they previously would've been in custody. This presumption will come into force when the progression model begins in the Autumn. For people serving Extended Determinate Sentences (EDS) not eligible for the progression model, and therefore the EM presumption, the parole board will make the decision on EM
2. Expansion of Domestic Abuse Perpetrators on License (DAPOL) scheme – this scheme will be brought into all 12 probation regions – it is currently active in 8 probation regions. The way the scheme works is that if there is a concern that a person is at risk of perpetrating domestic abuse (DA) on their release from prison (not just that a person’s original offence was DA-related), then probation can impose additional, monitoring requirements. These could include: curfews, an exclusion zone, whereabouts monitoring through GPS tags and alcohol monitoring.
3. Funding to test proximity monitoring – the Government will set aside £5m from the EM funding settlement to test proximity monitoring; this would enable us to know if an offender comes within a preset distance of a victim. It will be a consent-based scheme for victims and designed in partnership with victims’
4. Acquisitive crime – there will be an expansion to the GPS scheme applied to people on release who have eligible offending histories (i.e. burglary, robbery and theft); this group can be placed on a GPS tag for a certain of time (12 months or in some case longer); crime in local areas that has been left unsolved will then be mapped with the whereabouts of those on this specific tag. This is being rolled out further, and will be available to all police force areas by the end of this Parliament. 
5. New Electronic Monitoring Data Insights Tool - this insights tool will provide probation staff with quick access to electronic monitoring and behavioural information. A pilot will start in June 2026, with the aim to fully rollout by Autumn 2026.

Probation reforms:

Lord Timpson’s announcement builds on work conducted via the Our Future Probation Service (OFPS) programme designed to reduce probation caseloads. These changes are also being implemented, in particular, due to the inevitable increased demand on probation following Sentencing Act measures such as the progression model.

The changes:

1. Increasing the use of statistical offending predictors – utilising actuarial tools to more effectively identify those who are highest risk and their reoffending likelihood. Supported by a shift in how people on probation are tiered. There will be seven tiers in the new system. Each tier will have a set number of maximum contacts (as opposed to the setting of a minimum number of contacts in the current system).
2. Rebalancing expectations of supervision contact across the tiers – to ensure that those deemed as the highest risk will get the most contact with probation, and there will be a reduction in routine face-to-face appointments for those on the lower tiers. This is a rebalancing of the current supervision model, that takes more resources from the bottoms tiers so that greater resources can be focused on people in the higher tiers.
3. Tiered status of people convicted of domestic abuse – no person with current or historic concerns of convicted of a domestic abuse offense will be eligible for the lowest three tiers in the new system.
4. Practitioner assessment will overlay the actuarial model –the practitioner assessment on Risk of Serious Harm (ROSH) or MAPPA status will ensure offenders are placed in tiers with supervision levels that practitioners deem sufficient to manage risk.  

The Government is seeking to refocus probation’s resources on face-to-face relationships. Their objective, through these reforms, is to set out how much capacity in the system exists to do this relational work and then to protect this capacity for those at the top end of the tiered system who are considered to be the highest risk.