Introduction

The Independent Sentencing Review has published its initial report, exploring the history and trends in sentencing. The report is a precursor to the recommendations that will be submitted to the Lord Chancellor by the review’s chair, Rt Hon David Gauke, in the Spring.  

The review was commissioned within the context of a prison capacity crisis, with an ongoing shortfall in the number of prison places when compared to the number of people being sent to prison. Subsequently, the task for Gauke and his team is to present a package of proposals that will ‘ensure that demand for prison places does not exceed supply’.  

The findings - summary

Unsurprisingly, the initial findings illustrate that the increase in the prison population is predominantly policy-driven, with successive governments increasing the length of custodial sentences via a range of legislation. The custody rate for indictable offences has increased sharply since 1993, rising by more than 16 percentage points by 2024. The average custodial sentence length for indictable offences has increased from 16 months in 1993 to 22.5 months by June 2024.

Put simply, we have been sending more people to prison and for longer. This is despite falling crime rates, and the evidence pointing to the ineffectiveness of such a punitive approach that has been exacerbated by a ‘tough on crime’ narrative – labelled as ‘penal populism’. The report emphasises the high costs, both financially and socially, of the current system and points to international examples where alternative approaches have lowered crime rates and reduced prison populations. 

Also clear from these initial findings is that the issue of racial disparities, across the criminal justice system, remains entrenched. The report includes data that shows minoritised people are overrepresented in prison and tend to receive longer custodial sentences than White people. This has been reiterated in the submissions of many of the review’s respondents. The report references Action for Race Equality’s submission that detailed how Black Caribbean young males ‘are far more likely to receive a custodial sentence compared to young males from all other ethnic groups.’ Additionally, ‘Black, Asian, and Mixed Heritage people are also more likely to spend a longer time in prison'.

The numbers

• The prison population has nearly doubled since 1993, to over 85,000 in 2024 

• Projections suggest it could reach 112,300 by 2032 

• The number of custodial sentences of more than 10 years, excluding indeterminate and life sentences, have more than doubled from 487 in the year ending June 2010 to 1,639 in June 2024 

• Short custodial sentences (under 12 months) have the highest reoffending rates (56.9%) 

• The use of Community sentences has halved since 2012 

Factors driving the increase in the prison population

The report lists several factors driving the increase in the prison population, with a focus on the legislative and policy changes implemented by successive governments. These include increases to the use of immediate custody, mandatory and increased minimum sentences, as well as the introduction of a statutory framework for murder sentencing, and the introduction of indeterminate sentences of Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) (which have since been abolished).  

The rising levels of people on remand in custody (which is outside the scope of the review) and people recalled to prison have also been significant drivers. The numbers are stark – the recall population was less than 100 in 1993 yet reached 12,920 by December 2024. The number of people on remand had reached 17,023 by December 2024 – which is the highest level ‘in at least the last fifty years’.  

The report also notes increases in police charging and prosecutorial activity, in addition to increased flows into the courts.  

Composition of the prison population

The two main headlines are that the prison population is getting older, and that ‘ethnic minorities remain over-represented'.

By December 2024, there were 15,254 people in prison aged 50 or over, ‘of whom 6,116 were aged 60 or over’.   

In 2022, the average custodial sentence length (ACSL) for ‘white offenders’ was 21.2 months, compared to 30.5 months for ‘Asian offenders’ and 27.9 months for ‘Black offenders.’ The report goes on to highlight Ministry of Justice (MoJ) statistics that show a ‘statistically significant association between offenders of Black and mixed ethnicity and a higher likelihood of receiving a custodial sentence compared to those from the white ethnic group’.  

There were 3,418 women in prison in December 2024, with women making up between 4 and 6% of the prison population between 1993 and 2023. The report emphasises that many women in prison are victims, noting that ‘almost 60% of women supervised in the community or in custody, who have an assessment, report having experienced domestic violence.’ This underscores the need for a  specific and gendered approach to supporting women in contact with the criminal justice system.  

Reoffending

The report sets out that ‘the likelihood of reoffending after serving a custodial sentence is substantial, and higher than following a non-custodial sentence’. People leaving custody have the highest reoffending rate of 37.2%, and this figure jumps to 56.9% for those leaving custody after a short custodial sentence (a sentence of less than 12 months).  

The MoJ's own analysis finds that ‘a community order or suspended sentence order, rather than a short sentence of immediate custody, seems to be more effective at reducing reoffending risk’. Yet, the use of many non-custodial sentences has declined significantly. Data from 1996 illustrated that 26% of disposals were a community sentence. By June 2024, this figure had fallen to 6% (with the caveat that the definition of a community sentence has changed). The report also details how ‘the number of community order sentences imposed each year dropped 61% between 2010 and 2024’.  

International comparisons

The report emphasises alternative approaches through international comparisons. The Netherlands’ approach is highlighted, with the Dutch prison population decreasing by over 50% between 2006 and 2016. This was achieved through measures including a decrease in the average sentence lengths imposed by judges and the integration of psychological health care into sentencing. The report also highlights how Spain reduced its prison population by almost 30% between 2010 and 2023. Their approach included diversion activity, social reintegration centres, electronic monitoring, and legal reform of minor drug offences.  

Next steps

This interim report seemingly lays the groundwork for proposing an approach that moves away from penal populism and towards an approach focused more on rehabilitation, crime reduction, and alternatives to custody. The Sentencing Review team will now present its final report and recommendations to the Lord Chancellor this Spring.